Plan
“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” - Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Environments
An environment can be classified based on the number of agents that determine its state - static or dynamic, and based on the possibility of predicting its state based on the action(s) of its agent(s) – deterministic or non-deterministic.
A static environment’s state is determined by the actions of a specific agent. A dynamic environment’s state is determined by the actions of multiple agents.
Deterministic environments state can be predicted based on the action of an agent while the state of non-deterministic environments cannot be predicted using the action of an agent.
Plans
What is a plan?
Here is Meriam Webster: “A detailed formulation of a program of action”.
So that when we make plans, we create a step by step detail we intend to follow to achieve an end state or goal. Howbeit, in what sort of environment do we actually execute our plans? A static deterministic environment? A static non-deterministic environment? A dynamic deterministic environment? A dynamic non-deterministic environment?
Universe
Except you are a scientist carrying out an experiment in a controlled environment, you are likely going to be executing your plans in a dynamic non-deterministic environment because that is the characteristic of the universe you and I live in.
A common feature with dynamic or non-deterministic environments is the large number of agents or variables that determines their state, more so an environment that is both dynamic and non-deterministic.
The universe we live in, except there is a universe outside our universe, is the most dynamic and non-deterministic environment of all, and it is in this environment that we intend to follow our step by step detailed actions on achieving an end state or goal, little wonder Eisenhower made the statement that opens this essay.
Present to future
The premise upon which we make plans is an interesting one, it is this, we assume that we can, from the present using the past, predict the future.
That is as bold as one can get, but more so in an environment that is both dynamic and non-deterministic. An environment wherein an event that does not originate in your country or neighborhood can alter the state of your life – think covid-19. Making plans is a bold endeavor.
Problem
The problem with executing plans in a dynamic and non-deterministic environment like the universe is that, the moment you execute step one of your plan, by reason of taking that first step, you have made an input into the universe, which the universe then uses to determine its new state (alongside other inputs made by other agents in it), which your plan could not have been prepared for – no one knows the future. So that by reason of the new state of the universe, step two of your plan might actually have become irrelevant or outright detrimental to your goal.
Of what use then are plans?
Error Correction
The first step every scientist makes on the way towards propounding a theory is to make a guess – hypothesis, and then set out to disprove that guess – deduction. Along the way, the initial guess either gets affirmed, modified or discarded.
Hence, science proceeds by error correction, a concept that has immense implications readily seen in the contributions made by scientific discoveries in varying fields like medicine, agriculture, transportation, literally all walks of life have been dramatically improved by this seemingly simple concept.
Of what relation is this to plans?
Making plans can be analogous to making a guess - an assumption in the present about the future. Howbeit in a dynamic non-deterministic environment like the universe, the moment you execute the first step of your plan, you receive feedback as to the viability of following through on your second step, modifying it or completely changing the plan.
So that plans serve as the base, the foundation upon which we set out with the aim to attain a goal, but which we do not necessarily have to follow as the universe gives us feedbacks, we error correct and set ourselves on more viable paths, based on that feedback.
This is a bump authoritarians easily trip over, they make declarations, as though the universe is a static deterministic environment, and expect them carried out precisely, soon enough they learn, mostly by being kicked out of power, that we all are subject to the universe and no one individual can determine its state.
No plan
How about going about attaining goals without a plan? Knowing that we will surely deviate from the plans we make, why make any plan at all?
Imagine a scientist setting out to disprove or prove a theorem without any initial guess to work with. How far will he or she get?
There is a certain element of truth to the Benjamin Franklin’s saying: “if you fail to plan, you are planning to fail”.
What then?
The real super power we humans have that has differentiated us from all other species on earth, is not our ability to make plans or follow them, it is our ability to adjust to changing environments or circumstances. This is a super power that on an individual level can make you seem super human – get comfortable being uncomfortable, get comfortable making changes and adjusting on an ongoing basis, for to expect a dynamic non-deterministic environment to suddenly become static and deterministic just for you is a recipe for disaster.
Thank you for reading.